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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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