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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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