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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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