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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
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The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
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Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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