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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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