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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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