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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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