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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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