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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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