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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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