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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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