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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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