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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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