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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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Showing 46 to 50 news of total 6871 |
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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