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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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Showing 51 to 55 news of total 6871 |
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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