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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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