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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 26 April 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS ARE SHIFTING, THERMAL MORE THAN COKING - REUTERS
India’s coal imports are starting to reflect shifting world trade and pricing dynamics in the wake of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS EXPECT A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRICES ON EU BAN - REUTERS
A European Union embargo on Russian coal imports will push up prices in the short term before alternative supplies become available to steady the c ...
Monday, 18 April 22
FINNISH 'LOOPHOLES' ALLOW IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN COAL AND OIL TO CONTINUE - EURONEWS
Activists in Finland are calling for the government to clamp down faster on state-owned companies that continue to import raw materials from Russia ...
Monday, 18 April 22
GOVT IN DISCUSSION WITH WORLD BANK ON FRAMEWORK FOR COAL MINE CLOSURE - BUSINESS STANDARD
The coal ministry is in discussions with the World Bank for collaboration on the mine closure framework, a government official said on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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