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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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