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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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