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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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