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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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