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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
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Showing 366 to 370 news of total 6871 |
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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