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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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