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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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