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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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