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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
Tuesday, 29 March 22
MEMR OF INDONESIA HAS FIXED COAL PRICE AT US$ 90 PER TONNE FOR DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES EXCEPT SMELTER INDUSTRIES; FOR PLN USD 70 IS APPLICABLE
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif has set the selling price of coal for domestic, industrial except metal processing an ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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