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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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