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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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