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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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