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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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