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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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