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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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