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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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