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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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