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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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