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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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