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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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