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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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