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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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