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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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