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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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