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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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