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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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