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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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