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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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