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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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