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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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