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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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