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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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