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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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