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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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