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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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