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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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