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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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