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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 & ...
Wednesday, 29 June 22
APAC CORPORATE SECTOR OUTLOOKS SHIFT AMID GLOBAL SHOCKS - FITCH RATINGS’
Fitch Ratings’ mid-2022 corporate sector outlook review revealed that the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region saw the largest number of sector outlook ...
Thursday, 16 June 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Picking up from my last insight in March, on the early days of the invasion, it's worth pointing out the way that the fast-paced working enviro ...
Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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