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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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