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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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