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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
Tuesday, 28 September 21
THE MAIDEN EDITION OF DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021 CONCLUDES SUCCESSFULLY
Press Release: DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021, a one-day conference on the recent technological advancements in the Industrial Diving industry conclud ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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