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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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