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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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