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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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