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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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